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5 HVACR Industry Topics to Put on Your Radar.
A discussion of industry trends and considerations led
by members of the AHR Expo Expert Council.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration,
the built environment accounts for nearly 40% of
electricity consumption in the U.S. A large portion of
this energy is consumed by HVACR systems efforts to heat
or cool the indoor environment.
The HVACR industry has always been versatile with
ever-evolving practices, upgrades, disruptive products
and technologies. Though shifts may often seem slow
progressing to the general population, the industry is
currently primed to utilize and contribute to big tech
trends and, more importantly, is gearing up to be on the
center stage of global change.
In fact, HVACR has the potential to play a large role in
the future of every person on the planet — a notion that
is gaining greater realization by industry
professionals. Despite this outlook, the challenge ahead
remains —crafting an environment for humans to thrive
and maximize their potential while keeping negative
environmental impacts to a minimum.
To achieve these goals, cross-role communication among
industry personnel is essential. In an effort to support
the open flow of communication and stimulate ideation,
the AHR Expo has gathered a council of industry experts
aimed at discussing some of the biggest trends, issues
and opportunities that lie ahead for HVACR.
Recently the Council convened to discuss and develop
consensus views on five areas that are poised to be hot
topics for the industry and at the upcoming 2020 AHR
Expo in Orlando. Our goal is to spark conversation and
knowledge sharing among industry peers through articles,
papers, online networks and on social channels. We
encourage you to participate in the conversation, seek
out others in the industry and discuss the role of HVACR
in these issues and more, as well as how professionals
across all job functions might work together to achieve
greater success.
Global Climate Change
Global climate change is not a new discussion topic,
however, the inclusion of HVACR systems and their
potential to support the lowest emission output possible
is becoming more mainstream. Moving beyond the political
landscape, long-term sustainability goals and embodied
carbon are heavily considered in the design,
integration, and installation of whole building systems.
Engineers are challenged with designing systems that
meet or exceed performance expectations while staying on
course with changing regulation. Contractors are faced
with new regulations and must adapt to methods for
installation and maintenance. On the global scale,
net-zero initiatives are driving design and furthering
the consideration of the entire HVACR system and its
importance to the building function, as well as the
necessary energy to support it.
Story
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New
recommendations for climate change limits suggest a
global temperature lower than 1.5C according to the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a
finding that has been referenced in climate change
policies and initiatives across the globe.
“Minimizing climate change to the 1.5C limit by 2050
will require swift and unprecedented changes in the
HVACR industry. There are great challenges and
opportunities to be taken seriously if we want to arrive
at net zero emissions in operating, embodied, and
transportation carbon, yet maintain the superb wellbeing
of building occupants,” says Luke Leung, director of
sustainable energy at Skidmore Owings & Merrill LLP.
This idea of implementing new protocols to lessen
emissions is not a task to be viewed lightly,
particularly in societies where buildings and HVACR
systems are already established. Cities around the world
are taking serious measures to meet net zero goals. As
reported by Forbes earlier this year as part of the
Climate Mobilization Act, buildings totaling 25,000
square feet or more will face requirements to upgrade
boilers. Additionally, starting in the year 2024, New
York City building owners who do not comply with energy
efficiency requirements will face fines made up of the
difference in emissions limits for the year and a
building’s actual emissions, multiplied by $268.
Some areas of consideration for HVACR professionals
include:
Embodied Carbon Considerations
Government regulations are a driving force for designers
and builders to consider the full cycle of embodied
carbon and a building’s carbon footprint. California’s
government adopted the Buy Clean Act in October of 2017
and amended it in June of 2018. According to USGBC’s Los
Angeles chapter, the legislation promotes the spending
of taxpayer money in ways that help to reduce pollution
contributors to climate change. Additionally,
manufacturers and plants are held to tougher pollution
standards and the emissions performance of suppliers and
contractors is considered prior to project sign-on.
Environmental Product Declarations (EPDs) are becoming
commonplace in many countries around the world, with the
expectation of further growth in the coming years.
Currently, EPDs use the common methodology outlined in
ISO 14024 to define and compare products. There are
several supporting organizations in North America,
including NSF International, the Sustainability
Consortium, Carbon Leadership Forum, SGS Global
Services, among others. LEED Version 4 also began to
address EPD of products.
Low GWP Refrigerants
While low GWP refrigerants are already in use across the
industry, some options introduce safety hazards through
fire and combustion risks and may require significant
modifications to vapor compression equipment. According
to a 2016 Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory study,
an estimated 700 million air conditioning systems will
be in use by 2030. Not surprisingly, the quest to
develop the next generation of refrigerants is already
underway and is a buzzing topic of conversation among
industry professionals. There is also debate as to which
refrigerants will provide the most viable solution to
the global climate challenge. The use of low GWP
refrigerants remains heavily considered within the
industry as a way to lower overall emissions.
Electrification
The push to connect everything to the electrical grid in
the future is a political hot button that is discussed
across nearly every market. HVACR systems have been
given a front seat in this debate for their potential to
greatly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In the U.S.,
buildings still primarily rely on natural gas, coal, or
fuel oil as an energy source. The electrification
discussion stakes claim that HVACR systems can be
quickly decarbonized by removing old systems and
upgrading to clean energy systems with electric heat or
heat pumps. While the interaction between the electrical
grid and buildings is changing, the idea of total
transition has obstacles given the millions of homes and
businesses currently relying on fuels for operation.
“Heat pumps, specifically ccA2WHP cold climate air to
water heat pumps, are gaining attention from customers
looking to cut ties with both gas and oil. Support of
this method stems from the ability to integrate with PV
generated at the building location to lessen grid loss,
as well as the ability to generate heating, cooling and
domestic hot water (DHW) from a single unit,” said Bob
Rohr, a training manager with Caleffi North America.
“Looking into systems like this and others that reduce
negative climate impact is an added benefit for HVACR
professionals because it introduces an increased role of
hydronics and other technology avenues to the HVAC
industry.”
While many technologies are being considered, the
overall goal to move beyond reliance on products and
applications that have a negative impact on the
environment is shared. In the coming years, we can
expect to see much progress in this area driven by
government regulation, consumer demand and industry
innovation.
Indoor Climate Controlled Growth Facilities
Indoor growth facilities are seeing an increase in
interest for a few reasons. The first is the
practicality behind their use in supporting rapid
population growth. With progress made in HVACR and
systems capable of cooling and heating extreme external
environments, we are now living in areas of the world
previously thought uninhabitable. This has pushed the
boundaries of human living areas and expanded the built
environment with fewer limitations.
Additionally, as the human population rises, so does the
need for sustainable food options. Perhaps one of the
biggest barriers to food production in relation to
population growth is the loss of land space to nurture
crops large in number and size. The process of indoor
farming is already in practice in some areas around the
world. For example, in 2014, Japan's
Mirai Co. partnered with GE Japan to convert a
former Sony factory into an indoor growth facility to
house garden beds in what they’ve deemed a “plant
factory.” The concept gained attention as it solves many
of the controversial issues associated with traditional
farming—the use of pesticides to control pests and
bacteria and to ensure the health of the crop, and
devastating crop loss caused by harsh weather,
pollution, and other factors.
New markets are also taking on the challenge of
investing in indoor growth facilities. The hemp and
cannabis industry is a huge flagship for indoor growth
and is becoming more commonplace across the U.S.
Producers are looking for input and expertise to build
an entire industry from the ground up.
“With more and more U.S. states allowing for the
decriminalized use of marijuana and the widespread use
of CBD products, there is a sudden increased demand for
production. As a result, indoor grow facilities for
cannabis is one of the fastest-growing verticals we’ve
ever seen,” says Pam Duffy, Spark One Solutions, LLC and
P.E. licensed engineer serving the HVACR industry for
more than 10 years. “Many building owners are taking big
capital risks to build these facilities, and producing
high-quality products requires a precise approach to
climate and lighting control. Currently, there’s a
limited number of organizations in our industry that
specialize or even have experience in this area. The
prediction is that those who are willing to dive
head-first into this market will be rewarded for many
years to come.”
Indoor climates require precise control of a built
environment, something the HVACR industry masters more
than any. The opportunity to lead the design and
production of an indoor growth environment, as well as
the new jobs technicians, builders, contractors,
manufacturers, suppliers and all those touching the
industry will take on, makes this a viable opportunity
for the industry as a whole.
Building Automation & Control
The area of Building Automation & Control (BAC) is quick
paced and always changing. It maintains a prominent
presence at the AHR Expo, and each year showcases new
technologies and products that push boundaries. Where
technology will take us is yet to be seen, and therefore
makes this a buzzworthy topic for the foreseeable
future. What’s more, the BAC discussion is expanding to
include the Industrial Internet of Things (IIoT) and
Industry 4.0, artificial intelligence (AI) and security.
The HVACR industry isn’t unique in tapping the IoT for
deepened communication and information sharing. However,
it provides unique and exciting opportunities because it
allows for the open flow of communication between humans
and the built environment. The IoT not only gives a
closer connection between the occupant and the systems
control but also enhances the service response time due
to faster diagnostics and technician reporting. Already
the IoT is streamlining the customer relationship—but
where else can it lead HVACR?
Artificial intelligence in the HVACR industry has piqued
interest in the idea of self-diagnosing buildings, where
a broken system pinpoints a specific area of issue and
auto-orders replacement equipment. This idea is
provoking as it raises the question of the reliance on
building system diagnostic accuracy, as well as the role
of HVACR professionals in the future.
There are, however, concerns associated with increased
connection and network sharing. Cybersecurity is an area
of potential threat introduced with BAC and multiple
building systems. This is new territory for most in the
HVACR industry. As seen in areas using cloud-based and
multiple networked systems technologies sharing
communication, the opportunity for hackers is real and
needs to be considered by all. This means building
design and construction teams need to communicate
potential risks and best practices associated with
network use, and building owners need to be diligent in
protecting their networks and secure information.
“The key is to make the building aware of what it needs
to be aware of while maintaining local control. The
security risks involved in taking data out of buildings
completely, sending it all over the world, is far too
great. What we see more of is a higher focus on security
issues with the underlying idea of having control at the
edge, closer to the data source.” says Nicolas Waern,
The Building Whisperer.
Changing Consumer Demand
Consumer demand speaks to all the above-mentioned topics
as the driving force behind innovation and change. The
recognition that the largest population of building
occupants is the incoming millennial generation, and
that this cohort will also be the next generation of
building owners brings to light a number of
considerations that may not have mattered in the same
way to previous generations.
Millennials perhaps more than any generation prior are
active in the quest for sustainable options. They’ve
been dubbed “generation green,” with 66% even stating
they are willing to pay more for products and services
that come from companies with commitments to positive
environmental impacts, according to a Nielsen global
survey.
Now more than ever, consumers are demanding control of
environments in which they occupy. Dwellers are aware of
and seeking control of their health in relation to
outdoor and indoor environmental exposure. This includes
the demand for clean air, the ability to closely control
and monitor the indoor environment, and the opportunity
to live within smart buildings that conserve energy
based on many variables including occupancy and usage
patterns.
Smart home control systems have skyrocketed in recent
years, adding an attractive real estate feature to homes
with updated HVACR and lighting systems. Consumers are
also conscientious to the fact that we spend nearly 90%
of our time indoors, as indicated in an EPA sponsored
survey of national human activity, and the indoor
environment and its potential exposures can influence
personal health.
This shift of attention toward interior environments
quality means the HVACR design and system selection has
the potential to be influenced by different priorities
than those currently in use today. Occupant desire for
greater control coupled with their purchasing of
buildings and leasing of spaces reflect this priority
and indicate it will change the manner HVACR is done.
Business owners will likely also demand better indoor
environments as it has been shown to impact employee
productivity and wellbeing. It can also be anticipated
that there will be increased legal exposure to building
owners to provide safe and clean air as occupants become
more knowledgeable, technologies capable of measuring
and monitoring space quality become less expensive, and
data becomes more readily available. Restaurants,
merchants, theaters, etc. may also take advantage of
this new focus through marketing clean air to
distinguish themselves from the competition— much like
the food grade systems we see in place in cities across
the world.
Overall, a more health-conscious group of individuals is
aging into building ownership with funding to spend on
improving the interior space they occupy. HVACR
professionals can benefit from the opportunities to
cater to this new audience and their set of priorities.
Manufacturers are also keen to this shift and are
responding with products and technologies that excel in
innovation to meet the charge.
Job Force Recruitment
The trend that perhaps stands to be the greatest
obstacle for the HVACR industry in the immediate future
is the need to replenish an aging job force. Due to a
reduced interest in skilled trades as a career path and
the economic recession in the early 2000s that
contributed to stagnation in hiring, the industry faces
a lag of incoming professionals to meet the replacement
demands of those aging out of the industry. What’s more,
even if rising students are interested in pursuing
engineering or a skilled trade, they may not choose the
HVACR industry over others requiring similar applied
skills. The industry needs to take notice of these
challenges and work together to recruit a new generation
of HVACR professionals. This is an industry where
long-term careers can be built as the role of HVACR is
and always will be vital to all areas of the world, in
every building and in every home.
The workforce will also need to consider a broader
demographic than represented today to fill the void in
the workforce. Women, as well as ethnic minorities,
should be considered as part of this solution. While
there has been an indication of growth here, it is still
possible in the year 2019 to be the first minority
graduating from a trade school, as evidenced by Ryli
Jetton, who recently became the first female graduate
with an Associate’s degree in Heating, Ventilation and
Air Conditioning from
State Technical College of Missouri. The HVACR
industry needs to do a better job of championing the
many opportunities that exist in the HVACR business to
attract individuals from all backgrounds. This will not
only help fill the shortage of professionals but will
also introduce a broader set of ideas and talents to the
conversation, ultimately making the industry stronger.
“The way we promote the greatness of the HVACR industry
to younger generations is through in-person interactions
and open communication. We need to invite them into
engineering firms, let them shadow mechanical
contractors, visit job sites, attend events like the AHR
Expo, ASHRAE events, and other industry association
events. The opportunity to have real-life experiences in
the field will make all the difference,” says Karine
Leblanc, an engineer at US Air Conditioning
Distributors. “Having been exposed to the industry at a
younger age myself, I remember the experience of
visiting an engineering office and having a project
manager explain to me why the thermostat should not be
at its location. I was only 15 at the time, but this one
interaction shaped what has become my engineering
career.”
All these topics and more will be discussed in
forthcoming articles as well as at the 2020 AHR Expo, to
be held in Orlando, Florida, February 3-5th. For more
information, visit
www.ahrexpo.com.
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